July
15, 2013
Vietnam
and China should be friends. They share a 1,350 kilometer-long border and
a similar socialist political culture married to a capitalist economy dominated
by state-owned enterprises. Communist parties rule the roost in both Hanoi and
Beijing; a strong police force keeps the population in line.
But
since 2009 the relationship has been cold and distant. In the South China Sea,
on which Vietnam has a 3,260 kilometer-long coastline and territorial claims
that clash with China, Beijing’s domineering attitude has alienated the
leadership in Hanoi. The Vietnamese accuse Chinese manufacturers of dumping
cheap, shoddy or dangerous products in Vietnam, employing too many Chinese
workers, frequently missing deadlines, and plundering Vietnam’s natural
resources. Vietnam’s energy sector relies heavily and uncomfortably on Chinese
contractors. China has built a series of dams on the Mekong River in Yunnan
Province and plans to construct perhaps a dozen more in Laos, upriver from
Vietnam, threatening the livelihoods of farmers and fishermen downriver. In
Vietnam, David
Brown writes for Asia Sentinel, “The man in the street wants to hit back.”
China
and Vietnam share a complex, distrustful history. Chinese armies have
frequently invaded their neighbor to the south, which many in China consider a
“willful province that somehow slipped loose from its moorings.” Some of
Vietnam’s greatest heroes are generals who fought back against Chinese
oppression. The Vietnamese army killed as many as 20,000 Chinese soldiers
during a brief war in 1979.
Between
1979 and 2009 the relationship became cordial but it “has become dangerously
unstable” since then, Brown writes. “Chinese pressure on political and
strategic issues has boxed in Vietnam’s leaders, arguably threatening their
survival. Beijing has bolstered its standing among Chinese nationalists by
flexing its muscle in the South China Sea, while Hanoi’s ineffectual attempts
to fend off Chinese provocations have steadily eroded its position among
nationalists at home.”
This
is the dilemma faced by the leadership in Hanoi. Voices outside
the Communist Party, and even some within it, urge a closer relationship with
the United States to balance Chinese aggression. Other Vietnamese officials
“gag on American demands that Vietnam allow greater democratic freedoms,
fearing that Washington’s true objective is to bring down the Communist
regime.”
The
Vietnamese may be running out of time to choose. Chinese nationalism and
Beijing’s aggressive regional policy are showing no signs of going away. This
will only bolster the position of the policymakers who want to counter China
with stronger military forces and a closer relationship with Washington. Once
again, through a combination of clumsy, short-sighted, and self-defeating
policies, Beijing is showing a remarkable ability to drive away potential
friends and justify the continued presence of the United States in the Indo-Pacific
region.
[Truong
Tan Sang photo courtesy of Getty Images]
No comments:
Post a Comment